Correction: The Russia-China trade has skyrocketed by $50B and not by $100B, as written in previous headlines.
In the wake of Western sanctions and geopolitical shifts, Russia has sought to strengthen its strategic alliance with China. The dynamics of these relationships reflect a complex web of interests and alliances, reshaping the global geopolitical landscape.
In a recent development, Russia extended an invitation to China to collaborate on developing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and establishing an ice-class merchant fleet.
This cooperation was a key topic at the fifth meeting of the Russian-Chinese Commission on Russian Far East and Northeast China development, held in Vladivostok. Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev highlighted Russia’s efforts to enhance the NSR’s cargo flow.
The invitation follows the successful completion of eight inaugural voyages by Chinese firms along the NSR in 2023, prompting Russia to propose more extensive plans for the route’s infrastructure expansion.
This collaboration is set against the backdrop of intensifying ties between China and Russia, particularly in the wake of Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions have inadvertently pushed Russia closer to China, with the latter emerging as a crucial financial partner and economic lifeline for Moscow.
Historical Relations Between China & Russia
Since the early days of the communist movement, the Soviet Union and China have maintained close ties. However, their relationship began to deteriorate in the 1960s and reached its lowest point in the 1970s. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the two nations rekindled their relationship to counterbalance U.S. dominance.
Despite sharing a common adversary in the US, China and Russia have not historically had a deep-seated trust in each other. Their leaders and officials have often lacked a longstanding history of collaboration and mutual trust.
Take the Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island saga, for instance. After more than a century of territorial dispute, Russia ceded roughly half of Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island to the PRC in 2008, also handing over nearby Tarabarov Island and abandoning its army base there.
The PRC agreed not to claim more territory from Russia. However, with the release of its 2023 map, the PRC again claimed the entire island, prompting rejection from Russia regarding Beijing’s claim to all of Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island.
Though the two nations have a history of border conflicts, China has emerged as a pivotal partner for Russia today, particularly amidst current geopolitical dynamics. What unites them is a shared goal of challenging the international rules-based order.
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Russia, China Economic Ties
Despite Western sanctions stemming from the Ukraine war, Russia has transitioned from an upper-middle-income to a high-income economy according to the latest World Bank classifications, underscoring its resilience.
Trade between Russia and China has grown remarkably since 2002. Starting from nearly $12 billion in 2002, it soared to $130.1 billion in 2021. In 2022, total trade between the two countries jumped by 35.9% to reach a record $190 billion.
In 2023, bilateral trade surged to $240 billion as China capitalized on opportunities left by Western companies, significantly boosting its trade with Russia.
Russia’s dependence on China for critical goods has dramatically increased from 32% in 2021 to 89% in 2023. China has become Russia’s primary source of technology and consumer imports, while Russia continues to export affordable energy to China.
China’s trade relationship is crucial for Russia’s economy, acting almost as a lifeline. China has become the primary source not only for commercial goods but increasingly for dual-use components subject to Western export controls. Providing dual-use components instead of finished weapons allows China to support Russia while maintaining plausible deniability.
On the other hand, China also benefits significantly from its relationship with Russia. Just as the world needs goods from China, China relies on foreign tourists and investment to remain the world’s second-largest economy. Additionally, China benefits greatly from large-scale Russian energy imports via the Siberian pipeline.
Defense Cooperation
While there is no direct evidence of China selling arms to Russia, accusations have surfaced regarding Chinese assistance to Russia’s military.
In May 2024, British Secretary of State for Defence Grant Shapps alleged that the UK possesses evidence suggesting China is providing “lethal aid” to Russia in the context of their collaboration on combat equipment for the Ukrainian conflict, as reported by VOA News.
Previously, Washington had accused China of supplying crucial components to Russia’s military since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. These components, including microelectronics, have been integrated into tanks, missiles, and other weaponry.
According to a U.S. intelligence assessment from April 2024, China has significantly increased exports to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics, and other technologies crucial for Moscow’s production of military equipment, such as missiles, tanks, and aircraft.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed concern on May 23, 2024, about China’s contributions to Russia’s defense industrial base.
In 2023, China was responsible for approximately 90% of Russia’s imports of goods covered under the G7’s high-priority export control list.
Recently, CNN reported, citing a senior Biden administration official, that China is aiding Russia in significantly boosting its defense industrial capacity. This assistance has enabled Moscow to undertake its most extensive military manufacturing expansion since the Soviet era amidst its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The support from China includes substantial supplies of machine tools, drone and turbojet engines, cruise missile technology, microelectronics, and nitrocellulose used in weapon propellants. Additionally, Chinese and Russian entities have collaborated to manufacture drones within Russia.
Even before the conflict in Ukraine, signs of increased defense cooperation between Russia and China were evident. The two nations have long engaged in consultations regarding Northeast Asian security and have jointly conducted numerous air and naval exercises.
In the current month, China and Russia conducted live-fire naval exercises named ‘Maritime Cooperation—2024’ in the South China Sea.
‘No Limits’ Partnership
In February 2022, China and Russia declared a “no limits” partnership when Putin visited Beijing, just days before deploying troops into Ukraine.
In May 2024, Putin chose China for his first foreign trip after assuming the presidency for the fifth time at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. During this two-day visit, Putin emphasized strengthening strategic ties and his personal relationship with Xi Jinping while praising the growth in bilateral trade.
Although Putin claimed the partnership “is not directed against anyone,” it was clear he was addressing specific concerns.
Interestingly, the term “limitless” was conspicuously absent from government media this time around, indicating a shift. China appeared to be redefining its strategic partnership with Russia within certain boundaries.
Not only has China, but North Korea, isolated from much of the world, has also emerged as a new strategic partner for Russia.
In September 2023, North Korea agreed to provide weapons to support Russia’s efforts in Ukraine, while Russia offered technical assistance for North Korea’s missile program.
According to U.S. State Department assessments, North Korea has sent over 11,000 containers of weapons to Moscow since their 2023 meeting. This arrangement provides Russia with much-needed ammunition and offers North Korea financial support in return.
However, it’s worth noting that Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly has reservations about the growing closeness between his two allies.
Despite enduring challenges and historical mistrust, the partnership and bilateral trade between China and Russia are steadily strengthening.
The geopolitical landscape gains complexity with North Korea’s involvement, adding another layer to the dynamics between these nations. This strategic alliance, often characterized as a “BFF” (Best Frenemy Forever) relationship, is closely monitored by other countries, including the US and India, which recognize its significant global implications.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for E.T. Prime. In this capacity, she focused on covering defense strategies and the defense sector from a financial perspective. She offers over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail (dot) com.
